Spring 2025 market trends: Planters analysis

Although it is projected that farmers will see significant government payments in 2025, it could be months before that translates into equipment purchases. That means any potential market rebound may not happen until late 2025. So, what does this mean for the planter market?

We’re seeing the effects of reduced early orders play out in planter inventory and sales data. Year over year supply increases that have affected most other equipment categories have been muted for planters (up 2% year over year, and 5% from December to January) due to a sharp drop in early orders starting two years ago. 

January 2025 dealer sales softened year over year, down roughly 7% from January of 2024. Last year, dealership sales rose sharply in February and March saw the highest volume of planters sold at auction ever recorded by Tractor Zoom. This year there are stronger headwinds for spring planter sales with most grain significantly lower than this time last year and higher average list prices.

For example, the graph below shows the average quarterly values for 24 row planters less than 15 years old. The top teal line is average dealer list price, the dotted line is reported average actual sold values, and the lowest blue line is the auction average. While all values have dropped since Q2 of ‘24 (along with commodity prices), the final Q4 average list values were still above those a year earlier. 

The auction market appears to be absorbing a good amount of the supply that would have traditionally traded on dealer lots. Whether it is a factor of the extra supply, or down farm economy, or both…auction prices continue to drop, down 13% annually. This has increased the separation between list and auction averages to over 50% in the summer of 2024. That gap has narrowed slightly, but it remains a significant factor.

To highlight the widening disparity between auction and list values, here are a few specific examples: a John Deere 1775NT had a 20% auction-below-list gap in 2023 — now it’s 32%. The Kinze 3660 went from 29% to 45% in the same time period. 

Where this market is going is the biggest question. With supply in a steady state, and quality machines at auctions not bringing top dollar, it is likely that the first and second buyers of farm equipment are going to continue to look to their dealership for their next planter. This leaves net farm income as the remaining variable. If the USDA’s projects are close to correct, there may be a good opportunity to sell planters later this year. With any sales strategies, be sure your processes are thorough, and coverage in your area is complete!

If you are interested in more of this type of analysis, or to learn how Tractor Zoom is helping dealerships ensure their sales team is positioned to succeed, be sure to sign up for our upcoming webinar on March 26th where we’ll dissect the latest equipment trends, as well as the currently increasing supply of higher horsepower tractors and sprayers.