Reading the Signals: Ag Credit Trends and Collateral Risk for 2026 – And Beyond

The Ag Credit Landscape Has Shifted—Is Your Portfolio Ready?

After several years of elevated commodity prices and strong farm incomes, the U.S. agricultural economy is now navigating a more challenging credit environment. Producers are facing a convergence of tighter margins, higher interest expenses and larger operating loan needs.

For lenders, this creates a more complex risk landscape where borrower liquidity, repayment capacity, and collateral values must be evaluated with increased precision.

The numbers tell the story: Between 2005 and 2025, first-year payments on guaranteed operating loans increased more than 90% on average, reflecting the combined effect of higher rates and larger principal balances. Lenders have reported increased operating loan demand in 2025, driven by higher input costs and tighter producer cash flow. And forecasts suggest farm income could decline again in 2026 even with substantial government support.

The question isn't whether stress is coming but where it will surface first – and whether you'll see it in time.

Join Tractor Zoom's Andy Campbell and Kansas City Federal Reserve Senior Vice President Nate Kauffman for a data-driven conversation that brings together macro-level economic insights with equipment- and collateral-level data to help you better understand borrower risk and identify leading indicators of financial stress.

What You'll Learn

• Rising Operating Loan Balances and Repayment Challenges
  Understand how loan sizes and interest expenses have shifted over the past 12–18 months—and what that means for borrower repayment capacity heading into 2026.
• Margin Compression Across Major Crop Segments
  Get a clear picture of where producers are feeling the squeeze, how conditions vary across regions and farm types, and which operations are most exposed.
• Shifts in Borrower Liquidity and Working Capital
  Move beyond averages to identify the cracks: working capital erosion, debt servicing capacity, and the liquidity vs. solvency dynamics that signal early stress.
• Equipment Collateral Value Trends
  Understand what's happening to equipment values at auction and retail, how liquidity compares to book values, and why accurate collateral data matters more when margins compress.
• Early Warning Signals to Track in 2026
  Build your forward-looking outlook: commodity price thresholds, interest rate path, working capital metrics, loan delinquency trends, and machinery value signals that can serve as leading indicators.
• How Lenders Are Responding With Proactive Portfolio Management
  Learn what your peers are doing (underwriting changes, collateral requirements, restructuring decisions) and the strategic mindset that separates proactive portfolio management from reactive scrambling.

What You'll Walk Away With

All live webinar attendees will receive:

Webinar Replay Video

All registrants will receive on-demand access to the full webinar recording, giving you the ability to revisit Federal Reserve economic insights, credit risk signals, and equipment collateral trends as you evaluate portfolio decisions throughout 2026.

Equipment Market Trends Materials

Deep-dive analysis videos examining equipment category trends – including inventory movement, pricing dynamics, and market velocity – to help lenders better assess collateral risk, support valuation decisions, and identify emerging signals within their agricultural portfolios.

Who Should Attend

This webinar is designed for agricultural lenders, credit officers, and risk managers who need to understand ag credit risk and make informed portfolio decisions:

• Agricultural Bankers evaluating borrower risk in a tightening environment
• Credit Officers & Risk Managers responsible for portfolio health and underwriting standards
• Farm Credit and Commercial Ag Lenders navigating increased operating loan demand
• Ag-Focused Financial Advisors guiding clients through a challenging credit cycle

If you're looking to move from reactive to proactive portfolio management—and want a clearer view of where stress may surface next—this session will give you the signals to watch.

Meet Your Speakers

Nate Kauffman

Senior Vice President, Economist, & Omaha Branch Executive at the Kansas City Federal Reserve

Nate Kauffman is Senior Vice President and Omaha Branch Executive at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In his role as the Kansas City Fed's lead economist and representative in the state of Nebraska, Nate provides strategic direction and oversight for the Omaha Branch, regional research, and economic outreach throughout the state. He serves as a local connection to the nation's central bank and is responsible for briefing the Kansas City Fed's president—a member of the Federal Open Market Committee—on regional economic and business activity.

Nate serves as Executive Director of the Bank's Center for Agriculture and the Economy. He is a leading voice on the agricultural economy throughout the seven states of the Tenth Federal Reserve District and the broader Federal Reserve System. Nate oversees several Bank and Federal Reserve efforts to track agricultural economic and financial conditions. He speaks regularly on the agricultural economy to industry audiences and the news media, including providing testimonies at both U.S. Senate and U.S. House Agriculture Committee hearings.

Nate joined the Federal Reserve in 2012. He received his Ph.D. in economics from Iowa State University. Prior to receiving his Ph.D., Nate spent three years in Bosnia and Herzegovina coordinating agricultural economic development projects.

Andy Campbell

Director of Insights, Tractor Zoom

Andy Campbell combines boots-on-the-ground farming experience with business and data expertise to decode the trends shaping today's farm equipment market. With a background spanning Fortune 500 firms, tech startups, and academia, Andy specializes in turning complex datasets into strategic decisions that help ag businesses grow.

Raised on a multi-generation farm in northern Iowa, Andy continues to manage his family operation while helping dealerships and agribusinesses make sense of machinery values, market dynamics, and buyer behavior. His educational foundation includes a degree in chemical engineering and an MBA from the University of Iowa.

At Tractor Zoom, Andy leads the charge on market intelligence and equipment valuation trends, frequently collaborating with media outlets and presenting at industry conferences.

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